Hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East are pushing down the quotes of key commodities, which gives clear room for the strengthening of emerging market currencies. Wednesday morning brought hard inflation readings from the Polish economy, which, combined with the global appetite for risk, stabilize exchange rates ahead of further central bank decisions.
China pumps up imports, and oil gives back its risk premium
The key factor shaping yesterday’s sentiment was a change in perspective around energy markets. Crude oil fell below the psychological support of 100 dollars per barrel. Markets are pricing in reports of backstage talks between Washington and Tehran, which drastically lowered the geopolitical risk premium. Easing cost pressure is excellent news for European industry, although the tightening of logistics routes in the Strait of Hormuz region still requires companies to flexibly manage their supply chains.
From fundamental macroeconomic data, China came to the fore. The published trade balance of the Middle Kingdom amounted to barely USD 51.13 billion, missing the market consensus of USD 107.2 billion. This anomaly is driven by a massive jump in imports, which surged by as much as 27.8% y/y – this signals a rebounding domestic demand for refined oil and high-tech components, providing a pro-growth impulse for the global economy. Meanwhile, in the British Isles, the BRC retail sales index for March surprised with a strong reading of 3.1% y/y (against a forecast of 0.9%), confirming the strength of the local consumer.
In the United States, the PPI producer inflation index surprised positively, reaching 0.5% m/m and beating the consensus of 1.1%. The core PPI index was only 0.1% m/m compared to the expected 0.4% – this is a strong signal of slowing price pressure at the producer level. At the same time, ADP data showed employment growth of 39.3k (forecast: 26.0k), confirming the resilience of the US labor market. Fed representatives suggest that the current oil shock will not derail US inflation from its long-term downward trajectory.
Risk-on across the ocean, cold calculation on the Old Continent
Relief in the commodities market immediately shifted to American trading floors. Tuesday’s session in the US ended with stable gains. The S&P 500 index remains above the 7000-point barrier, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq continues its rally. Europe is reacting much more coolly, with the German DAX recording a slight slip yesterday, and investors holding back capital ahead of today’s crucial macro readings.
The change in sentiment is perfectly visible in the precious metals markets. Gold, after a wave of panic buying, has entered a correction phase, moving away from historical highs. Capital is shifting from safe havens toward assets with a higher rate of return, which creates a favorable environment for the Polish zloty.
Morning Currency Board: The zloty gains, main trends unchanged
The easing of geopolitical tensions historically favors emerging market currencies. We can see this in today’s summary. To continuously monitor operational costs, we recommend using our updated currency calculator.
Below, the arrow indicates the daily change, however, the analytical commentary specifies the main 20-day trend so that one-day fluctuations do not distort the assessment of the situation when planning payments.
- EUR/PLN: 4.2386 ↘️ | Today’s decline confirms a broad, 20-day downward trend. The price remains below the MA20 moving average, which creates a highly favorable window for importers.
- USD/PLN: 3.5932 ↘️ | The dollar is losing against the zloty. Continuation of a strong downward trend, determined by a global retreat from the American currency.
- CHF/PLN: 4.6072 ↗️ | Despite today’s morning rebound (+0.07%), the main 20-day trend remains downward. The current upward movement is only a correction within a broader descending channel.
- GBP/PLN: 4.8740 ↘️ | The British currency is in clear retreat against the PLN. Confirmation of the long-term downward trend below the MA20.
- EUR/USD: 1.1794 ↗️ | The main currency pair continues its upward trend. The euro benefits from market optimism and dollar weakness.
- EUR/GBP: 0.8693 ↘️ | Stable continuation of the downward trend. The pound is gaining an advantage over the common currency.
- GBP/USD: 1.3562 ↘️ | Today’s minus is a local correction. The broad 20-day horizon is an unwavering upward trend for the cable.
- DE30: 24224.50 ↘️ | The German trading floor notes a minor slip. Considering recent weeks – purely a correction within a bullish trend.
- US30: 48729.00 ↘️ | Dow Jones with a minimal pullback. The upward structure remains intact.
- US100: 26016.80 ↗️ | The tech index shows no signs of weakness. A steady march north and continuation of the upward trend.
- US500: 7006.50 ↗️ | S&P 500 consolidates its position above 7000 points. A strong bullish market.
- GOLD: 4812.33 ↘️ | Gold is clearly correcting yesterday’s valuations (–0.76% today), releasing the fear premium. The main 20-day trend formally remains upward.
- OILBRNT: 95.10 ↗️ | A cosmetic rebound in oil after yesterday’s sell-offs. In the perspective of 20 sessions, the commodity is in the grip of bears.
- PL20: 3628.50 ↘️ | A pause in the rally on Książęca street. Today’s minimal drop is a technical correction in a solid, 20-day rising trend.
- NATGAS: 2.595 ➖ | Lack of a clear direction in the European session. The commodity is consolidating in a broad downward band.
Surprise in the Polish CPI. What is the market waiting for today?
Wednesday’s calendar has already brought the first earthquake. At 09:30, Statistics Poland (GUS) published inflation indicators for Poland. Consumer prices in March rose by 1.1% m/m, beating the market consensus anchored at 1.0%. In annual terms, inflation stood at 3.0%. Resilient price pressure in the domestic economy provides a strong argument for the Monetary Policy Council to keep interest rates at their current level, which supports the zloty’s fundamentals in the long term.
Earlier, at 08:45, we learned the data from France, where monthly CPI inflation stood at 1.0% – slightly above the forecasted 0.9%. Today’s morning clearly shows that disinflationary processes in Europe are encountering resistance, which forces financial institutions to recalculate their risk models.
The second half of the day will belong to the United States. At 14:30, investors will analyze the manufacturing index for New York (Empire State, forecast: 0.30) and the dynamics of import and export prices. The hour 16:30 will bring the crucial EIA report on crude oil inventories – the consensus assumes an increase of 2.1 million barrels (previous: 3.081 million). The evening will be dominated by statements from policymakers: at 17:50 and 20:00, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak, at 19:45 – FOMC member Michelle Bowman, and promptly at 20:00, the Federal Reserve will publish the Beige Book. The session will be closed by a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde at 21:30 and ECB Vice-President Isabel Schnabel at 22:00. Investors will look for clues in the rhetoric of Lagarde and Schnabel as to whether the energy shock has managed to permanently translate into core inflation in the euro area.
How to efficiently pay foreign invoices in the face of volatility?
Entrepreneurs engaged in trade know perfectly well that online currency exchange is just the first step in the process. The purchased funds are almost immediately transferred to the accounts of foreign contractors for equipment, materials, or services. Managing this chain across two different institutions – a bank for transfers and an external currency exchange office – consumes time and generates unnecessary accounting delays.
Especially now, as the zloty strengthens against key currencies, it is worth using this moment to fund suppliers’ accounts. On the Trejdoo platform, you will not only convert funds at a rate close to the interbank rate, but you can also immediately order fast foreign and domestic transfers directly to your business partners. Money in SWIFT, SEPA Instant, or Faster Payments systems is booked without unnecessary bank bureaucracy.
We have prepared a special offer for the readers of today’s brief that closes the cost loop. If you plan to settle import obligations today, take advantage of our Wednesday promotion and exchange currency towards invoices with a special discount code: currency exchange 50% cheaper. Optimizing the entire process – from exchange to foreign transfer – means real money stays in your company’s account.
The day is dictated by strong data from the Polish economy and waiting for impulses from the US. Declines in commodity markets stabilize the situation, giving companies a favorable environment to execute postponed import transactions.
This material prepared by Igoria Trade S.A. is exclusively for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or investment advice. The data comes from sources considered reliable, but Igoria Trade S.A. does not guarantee their full accuracy. The interpretation of charts and comments reflects the subjective assessment of the authors. The user should conduct their own analysis before making an investment decision. Igoria Trade S.A. is not responsible for the consequences of actions based on the information contained herein. Using or publishing all or part of this material without the written consent of Igoria Trade S.A. is prohibited.
Business sigh of relief. The zloty gains after the inflation test and oil sell-off
Hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East are pushing down the quotes of key commodities, which gives clear room for the strengthening of emerging market currencies. Wednesday morning brought hard inflation readings from the Polish economy, which, combined with the global appetite for risk, stabilize exchange rates ahead of further central bank decisions.
China pumps up imports, and oil gives back its risk premium
The key factor shaping yesterday’s sentiment was a change in perspective around energy markets. Crude oil fell below the psychological support of 100 dollars per barrel. Markets are pricing in reports of backstage talks between Washington and Tehran, which drastically lowered the geopolitical risk premium. Easing cost pressure is excellent news for European industry, although the tightening of logistics routes in the Strait of Hormuz region still requires companies to flexibly manage their supply chains.
From fundamental macroeconomic data, China came to the fore. The published trade balance of the Middle Kingdom amounted to barely USD 51.13 billion, missing the market consensus of USD 107.2 billion. This anomaly is driven by a massive jump in imports, which surged by as much as 27.8% y/y – this signals a rebounding domestic demand for refined oil and high-tech components, providing a pro-growth impulse for the global economy. Meanwhile, in the British Isles, the BRC retail sales index for March surprised with a strong reading of 3.1% y/y (against a forecast of 0.9%), confirming the strength of the local consumer.
In the United States, the PPI producer inflation index surprised positively, reaching 0.5% m/m and beating the consensus of 1.1%. The core PPI index was only 0.1% m/m compared to the expected 0.4% – this is a strong signal of slowing price pressure at the producer level. At the same time, ADP data showed employment growth of 39.3k (forecast: 26.0k), confirming the resilience of the US labor market. Fed representatives suggest that the current oil shock will not derail US inflation from its long-term downward trajectory.
Risk-on across the ocean, cold calculation on the Old Continent
Relief in the commodities market immediately shifted to American trading floors. Tuesday’s session in the US ended with stable gains. The S&P 500 index remains above the 7000-point barrier, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq continues its rally. Europe is reacting much more coolly, with the German DAX recording a slight slip yesterday, and investors holding back capital ahead of today’s crucial macro readings.
The change in sentiment is perfectly visible in the precious metals markets. Gold, after a wave of panic buying, has entered a correction phase, moving away from historical highs. Capital is shifting from safe havens toward assets with a higher rate of return, which creates a favorable environment for the Polish zloty.
Morning Currency Board: The zloty gains, main trends unchanged
The easing of geopolitical tensions historically favors emerging market currencies. We can see this in today’s summary. To continuously monitor operational costs, we recommend using our updated currency calculator.
Below, the arrow indicates the daily change, however, the analytical commentary specifies the main 20-day trend so that one-day fluctuations do not distort the assessment of the situation when planning payments.
Surprise in the Polish CPI. What is the market waiting for today?
Wednesday’s calendar has already brought the first earthquake. At 09:30, Statistics Poland (GUS) published inflation indicators for Poland. Consumer prices in March rose by 1.1% m/m, beating the market consensus anchored at 1.0%. In annual terms, inflation stood at 3.0%. Resilient price pressure in the domestic economy provides a strong argument for the Monetary Policy Council to keep interest rates at their current level, which supports the zloty’s fundamentals in the long term.
Earlier, at 08:45, we learned the data from France, where monthly CPI inflation stood at 1.0% – slightly above the forecasted 0.9%. Today’s morning clearly shows that disinflationary processes in Europe are encountering resistance, which forces financial institutions to recalculate their risk models.
The second half of the day will belong to the United States. At 14:30, investors will analyze the manufacturing index for New York (Empire State, forecast: 0.30) and the dynamics of import and export prices. The hour 16:30 will bring the crucial EIA report on crude oil inventories – the consensus assumes an increase of 2.1 million barrels (previous: 3.081 million). The evening will be dominated by statements from policymakers: at 17:50 and 20:00, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak, at 19:45 – FOMC member Michelle Bowman, and promptly at 20:00, the Federal Reserve will publish the Beige Book. The session will be closed by a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde at 21:30 and ECB Vice-President Isabel Schnabel at 22:00. Investors will look for clues in the rhetoric of Lagarde and Schnabel as to whether the energy shock has managed to permanently translate into core inflation in the euro area.
How to efficiently pay foreign invoices in the face of volatility?
Entrepreneurs engaged in trade know perfectly well that online currency exchange is just the first step in the process. The purchased funds are almost immediately transferred to the accounts of foreign contractors for equipment, materials, or services. Managing this chain across two different institutions – a bank for transfers and an external currency exchange office – consumes time and generates unnecessary accounting delays.
Especially now, as the zloty strengthens against key currencies, it is worth using this moment to fund suppliers’ accounts. On the Trejdoo platform, you will not only convert funds at a rate close to the interbank rate, but you can also immediately order fast foreign and domestic transfers directly to your business partners. Money in SWIFT, SEPA Instant, or Faster Payments systems is booked without unnecessary bank bureaucracy.
We have prepared a special offer for the readers of today’s brief that closes the cost loop. If you plan to settle import obligations today, take advantage of our Wednesday promotion and exchange currency towards invoices with a special discount code: currency exchange 50% cheaper. Optimizing the entire process – from exchange to foreign transfer – means real money stays in your company’s account.
The day is dictated by strong data from the Polish economy and waiting for impulses from the US. Declines in commodity markets stabilize the situation, giving companies a favorable environment to execute postponed import transactions.
This material prepared by Igoria Trade S.A. is exclusively for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or investment advice. The data comes from sources considered reliable, but Igoria Trade S.A. does not guarantee their full accuracy. The interpretation of charts and comments reflects the subjective assessment of the authors. The user should conduct their own analysis before making an investment decision. Igoria Trade S.A. is not responsible for the consequences of actions based on the information contained herein. Using or publishing all or part of this material without the written consent of Igoria Trade S.A. is prohibited.Share this