Tensions between Washington and Tehran are escalating, driving up the prices of energy commodities and directing capital flows toward safe havens. The Polish zloty remains under the pressure of global risk, forcing companies to revise their margin hedging strategies.
Unstable Compromise and the Specter of Blocked Trade Routes
The last 48 hours have brought a drastic increase in geopolitical risk. The government in Tehran has put a counter-proposal on the table in response to American pressure. The three-phase plan assumes ending military operations within 30 days in exchange for non-aggression guarantees. A key element of the first phase is the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House’s reaction remains cold. President Trump’s administration is openly expressing skepticism regarding the credibility of Iranian declarations.
The lack of consensus immediately hit the commodities market. Investors are pricing in the risk of a prolonged blockade of a key transport hub for global oil supplies. Brent crude broke through the level of $113 per barrel. WTI is oscillating around $101. The costs of freight and maritime cargo insurance are growing at an exponential rate. At the same time, capital is flowing into safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stabilizing above 98.40. The American currency, additionally supported by hawkish Fed rhetoric ruling out rate cuts in 2026, is gaining at the expense of emerging markets.
Yesterday’s macroeconomic readings from the Old Continent took a back seat. Manufacturing PMI indices for France (52.8) and Italy (52.1) slightly exceeded forecasts. German manufacturing is still teetering on the edge of stagnation with a result of 51.4. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. President Christine Lagarde, during her latest speech, clearly emphasized the growing inflation risks alongside threats to the pace of economic growth.
Green on the Trading Floors, Commodities Set the Trends
The reaction of the stock markets to the news from the Middle East is surprisingly calm. American indices are ignoring the commodity turmoil, fueled by the uninterrupted boom in the artificial intelligence sector. The US100 is gaining 0.53%, approaching the level of 27,906 points. Futures on the US500 are rising to 7,251 points. European trading floors are also making up for losses. The German DE30 is up exactly 1.00%, testing the barrier of 24,248 points. Asia remains divided. Exchanges in Tokyo and Hong Kong are recording declines, which is a direct reaction to the capital outflow from regions most dependent on energy commodity imports.
Real volatility is accumulating in the alternative and commodity markets. Gold (GOLD) shot up to the level of $4,550 per ounce, gaining 0.67% just during the morning session. This is a classic flight from risk. Yields on American 10-year Treasury bonds remain in the region of 4.47%. The spread between two- and ten-year papers is growing, signaling investors’ concerns about the long-term inflationary effects of the current crisis.
In Poland, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is keeping the reference rate at 3.75%. Governor Adam Glapiński firmly warns against second-round effects. Higher energy and crude oil prices will inevitably translate into transport and production costs along the Vistula River. The domestic WIG20 index shows relative stability, rising 0.49% (3457.50 points) in the morning, supported by the inflow of funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which buffer the sentiment of foreign investors towards Polish assets. Securing trade contracts under these conditions requires airtight solutions, such as an [escrow account](https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.trejdoo.com/en/escrow-account/), which minimizes the risk of counterparty insolvency amid sharp price movements.
Morning Currency Board: PLN Corrects Within the Trend
The beginning of Tuesday’s session brings a slight breather on pairs linked to the Polish currency, although the franc and the pound remain in a strong upward trend.
- EUR/PLN: 4.2568 ↘️ | We are observing a natural correction in the dominant upward trend. The zloty is gaining slightly.
- USD/PLN: 3.6404 ↘️ | A correction in an upward trend. The dollar is catching its breath after strong rallies related to the Strait of Hormuz.
- CHF/PLN: 4.6490 ↗️ | Continuation of the upward trend. Capital is fleeing to the franc in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.
- GBP/PLN: 4.9303 ↗️ | Continuation of the upward trend. The pound shows great resilience to market turmoil.
- EUR/USD: 1.1693 ↗️ | A slight bounce in a downward trend. The euro is trying to regain the ground sold off last week.
- EUR/GBP: 0.8634 ↘️ | Continuation of the downward trend. Capital clearly favors the British currency over the European one.
- GBP/USD: 1.3543 ↗️ | Continuation of the upward trend. The pound’s strong position despite a globally strong dollar.
Today’s Calendar: Eyes on the US Services Sector
Today’s session will be dominated by data from the United States. In the morning, we already learned the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates by 25 basis points, pricing in rising global energy costs.
The key hit of volatility will come in the afternoon. At 2:30 PM CET, the US Department of Commerce will publish the March trade balance. The market expects the deficit to deepen to $61 billion (compared to $57.3 billion previously). A significant increase in imports may signal strong domestic demand, confirming the Fed’s hawkish stance.
The main course is the readings from the services sector. At 3:45 PM CET, the markets will interpret the final services PMI index calculated by S\&P Global (forecast: 51.3 pts). A quarter of an hour later, at 4:00 PM CET, the ISM services index will be published (forecast: 53.7 pts). The service sector is the backbone of the American economy. Maintaining its momentum above the 50-point barrier is a strong signal for the Federal Reserve not to rush into any monetary policy easing. Strong readings will instantly strengthen the dollar, exerting additional depreciating pressure on emerging market pairs, including USD/PLN.
How to Protect Margins During Extreme Market Volatility?
Sudden movements on franc or dollar pairs ruthlessly hit the profitability of contracts. Exporters and importers operating on traditional bank accounts lose twice: on the unfavorable movement of the exchange rate itself and on the drastically widening spreads imposed by the banking sector in moments of panic. Transaction service costs grow proportionally to market risk.
💡 Trejdoo Tip: The spread is wider at the bank. Check how much you’ll save with us: currency calculator
A lack of strategy on days of heightened volatility means giving up part of the margin to intermediary institutions. Optimizing exchange costs and having instant access to real interbank rates is now the foundation of liquidity management. Open a free account with Trejdoo and exchange currencies 24/7 without bank spreads.
Blocking transport routes in the Persian Gulf imposes a new inflation tax on the global economy in the form of expensive oil. A strong dollar amplifies this effect for European and Polish companies. Hedging the exchange rate at an appropriate level is becoming an operational priority for the coming weeks.
This material prepared by Igoria Trade S.A. is exclusively for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or investment advice. The data comes from sources considered reliable, but Igoria Trade S.A. does not guarantee their full accuracy. The interpretation of charts and comments reflects the subjective assessment of the authors. The user should conduct their own analysis before making an investment decision. Igoria Trade S.A. is not responsible for the consequences of actions based on the information contained herein. Using or publishing all or part of this material without the written consent of Igoria Trade S.A. is prohibited.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis Drives Up Oil Prices. What Does It Mean for Importers and the PLN Exchange Rate?
Tensions between Washington and Tehran are escalating, driving up the prices of energy commodities and directing capital flows toward safe havens. The Polish zloty remains under the pressure of global risk, forcing companies to revise their margin hedging strategies.
Unstable Compromise and the Specter of Blocked Trade Routes
The last 48 hours have brought a drastic increase in geopolitical risk. The government in Tehran has put a counter-proposal on the table in response to American pressure. The three-phase plan assumes ending military operations within 30 days in exchange for non-aggression guarantees. A key element of the first phase is the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House’s reaction remains cold. President Trump’s administration is openly expressing skepticism regarding the credibility of Iranian declarations.
The lack of consensus immediately hit the commodities market. Investors are pricing in the risk of a prolonged blockade of a key transport hub for global oil supplies. Brent crude broke through the level of $113 per barrel. WTI is oscillating around $101. The costs of freight and maritime cargo insurance are growing at an exponential rate. At the same time, capital is flowing into safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is stabilizing above 98.40. The American currency, additionally supported by hawkish Fed rhetoric ruling out rate cuts in 2026, is gaining at the expense of emerging markets.
Yesterday’s macroeconomic readings from the Old Continent took a back seat. Manufacturing PMI indices for France (52.8) and Italy (52.1) slightly exceeded forecasts. German manufacturing is still teetering on the edge of stagnation with a result of 51.4. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. President Christine Lagarde, during her latest speech, clearly emphasized the growing inflation risks alongside threats to the pace of economic growth.
Green on the Trading Floors, Commodities Set the Trends
The reaction of the stock markets to the news from the Middle East is surprisingly calm. American indices are ignoring the commodity turmoil, fueled by the uninterrupted boom in the artificial intelligence sector. The US100 is gaining 0.53%, approaching the level of 27,906 points. Futures on the US500 are rising to 7,251 points. European trading floors are also making up for losses. The German DE30 is up exactly 1.00%, testing the barrier of 24,248 points. Asia remains divided. Exchanges in Tokyo and Hong Kong are recording declines, which is a direct reaction to the capital outflow from regions most dependent on energy commodity imports.
Real volatility is accumulating in the alternative and commodity markets. Gold (GOLD) shot up to the level of $4,550 per ounce, gaining 0.67% just during the morning session. This is a classic flight from risk. Yields on American 10-year Treasury bonds remain in the region of 4.47%. The spread between two- and ten-year papers is growing, signaling investors’ concerns about the long-term inflationary effects of the current crisis.
In Poland, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is keeping the reference rate at 3.75%. Governor Adam Glapiński firmly warns against second-round effects. Higher energy and crude oil prices will inevitably translate into transport and production costs along the Vistula River. The domestic WIG20 index shows relative stability, rising 0.49% (3457.50 points) in the morning, supported by the inflow of funds from the National Recovery Plan (KPO), which buffer the sentiment of foreign investors towards Polish assets. Securing trade contracts under these conditions requires airtight solutions, such as an [escrow account](https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.trejdoo.com/en/escrow-account/), which minimizes the risk of counterparty insolvency amid sharp price movements.
Morning Currency Board: PLN Corrects Within the Trend
The beginning of Tuesday’s session brings a slight breather on pairs linked to the Polish currency, although the franc and the pound remain in a strong upward trend.
Today’s Calendar: Eyes on the US Services Sector
Today’s session will be dominated by data from the United States. In the morning, we already learned the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised interest rates by 25 basis points, pricing in rising global energy costs.
The key hit of volatility will come in the afternoon. At 2:30 PM CET, the US Department of Commerce will publish the March trade balance. The market expects the deficit to deepen to $61 billion (compared to $57.3 billion previously). A significant increase in imports may signal strong domestic demand, confirming the Fed’s hawkish stance.
The main course is the readings from the services sector. At 3:45 PM CET, the markets will interpret the final services PMI index calculated by S\&P Global (forecast: 51.3 pts). A quarter of an hour later, at 4:00 PM CET, the ISM services index will be published (forecast: 53.7 pts). The service sector is the backbone of the American economy. Maintaining its momentum above the 50-point barrier is a strong signal for the Federal Reserve not to rush into any monetary policy easing. Strong readings will instantly strengthen the dollar, exerting additional depreciating pressure on emerging market pairs, including USD/PLN.
How to Protect Margins During Extreme Market Volatility?
Sudden movements on franc or dollar pairs ruthlessly hit the profitability of contracts. Exporters and importers operating on traditional bank accounts lose twice: on the unfavorable movement of the exchange rate itself and on the drastically widening spreads imposed by the banking sector in moments of panic. Transaction service costs grow proportionally to market risk.
A lack of strategy on days of heightened volatility means giving up part of the margin to intermediary institutions. Optimizing exchange costs and having instant access to real interbank rates is now the foundation of liquidity management. Open a free account with Trejdoo and exchange currencies 24/7 without bank spreads.
Blocking transport routes in the Persian Gulf imposes a new inflation tax on the global economy in the form of expensive oil. A strong dollar amplifies this effect for European and Polish companies. Hedging the exchange rate at an appropriate level is becoming an operational priority for the coming weeks.
This material prepared by Igoria Trade S.A. is exclusively for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or investment advice. The data comes from sources considered reliable, but Igoria Trade S.A. does not guarantee their full accuracy. The interpretation of charts and comments reflects the subjective assessment of the authors. The user should conduct their own analysis before making an investment decision. Igoria Trade S.A. is not responsible for the consequences of actions based on the information contained herein. Using or publishing all or part of this material without the written consent of Igoria Trade S.A. is prohibited.Share this