Exchange rates Feb 16, 2026
- EUR/PLN: 4,2090 (-0,02%)
- USD/PLN: 3,5480 (-0,12%)
- EUR/USD: 1,1863 (+0,10%)
- GBP/PLN: 4,8397 (-0,01%)
- CHF/PLN: 4,6146 (+0,03%)
- Złoto (XAU/USD): 5007,69 USD/oz
- Ropa (Brent): 67,65 USD/bbl
Monday’s market opening is marked by a wait-and-see atmosphere and limited liquidity. While the US observes Washington’s Birthday and China continues its New Year celebrations, key market drivers came from Tokyo, where the economy managed to avoid a technical recession, despite data coming in weaker than market expectations.
Last 24h Macro: Japan and ECB in Focus
The key overnight event was the release of preliminary Japan Q4 GDP data. The Japanese economy grew by 0.1% q/q, symbolically snapping the contraction streak from the previous period. While this result fell well short of the forecasted 0.4% growth, investors breathed a sigh of relief at the end of the technical recession. Notable, however, is the high GDP deflator at 3.4% y/y, suggesting that price pressure in Japan persists, providing the Bank of Japan with arguments for further monetary policy normalization.
In Europe, echoes of Sunday’s speech by the ECB President continue to resonate. Speaking yesterday, Christine Lagarde maintained a rhetoric that markets are interpreting as a “cautiously wait-and-see” approach. The absence of abrupt declarations from Frankfurt supports the stability of the euro, which is holding onto the gains made last week. Investors are hoping that today’s Eurogroup meeting will shed more light on the Eurozone’s fiscal plans in the face of slowing economic growth.
Global Markets: The Calm Before the Storm?
Today’s session is a classic example of trading with reduced market participation. The absence of investors from the US (Presidents’ Day) and Canada (Family Day) means trading volumes on major currency pairs will drop sharply after 14:00 CET. Under these conditions, markets often enter a phase of sideways drift; however, thin liquidity carries risks—even smaller orders can trigger disproportionately large, temporary price movements.
In the commodities market, we are observing consolidation. Gold is holding firmly above the psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce, testing the $5,007 level. Brent crude, priced at $67.65, remains in a stable trend, balancing between concerns over demand in China and geopolitical risks. The DAX index (DE30) is oscillating around 25,061 points, searching for direction in the absence of cues from Wall Street.
Currencies: Zloty Stable, Dollar on the Defensive
The situation on the currency market this morning is as follows:
EUR/USD: The major pair is clinging to the 1.1863 level. The H1 chart shows a distinct deceleration of bullish momentum within the Ichimoku Cloud zone. With US capital absent, a break of the 1.1900 resistance seems unlikely today, unless European data (industrial production) surprises to the upside.
- EUR/PLN: The Zloty is showing strength, pushing the euro towards 4.2090. Technically, the pair is in a sideways trend with a slight bearish bias. Support in the 4.2000 area remains a key target for sellers, underpinned by the hawkish stance of the MPC.
- USD/PLN: The US currency is among the cheaper performers in the basket today, trading around 3.5480 PLN. Broad-based dollar weakness coupled with a stable Zloty creates attractive conditions for importers settling in USD.
- CHF/PLN: The Swiss franc remains expensive, quoted at 4.6146 PLN. The Swiss currency continues to serve as a safe haven, with its exchange rate supported by geopolitical uncertainty in Europe.
Outlook for the Day
Despite the holiday in North America, the calendar is not entirely empty. At 11:00 AM CET, we will see the release of Eurozone industrial production data for December (forecast: -1.5% m/m), which will serve as a test for the health of the European industrial sector.
Things could get interesting in the afternoon for Canadian Dollar (CAD) pairs. Despite the holiday in Canada, the calendar schedules the CPI release for 14:30 CET. If the data is published as planned, the low liquidity environment could cause USD/CAD (and indirectly CAD/PLN) to experience elevated volatility.
How to take advantage of the current market situation?
A quiet Monday is the perfect moment for “back-to-basics” work in corporate finance. When the market is calm, it is easier to perform cool-headed calculations and implement transaction automation.
- For importers (USD/PLN): An exchange rate around 3.55 PLN per dollar is an opportunity. If you have liabilities in USD, today’s session without the Americans is conducive to purchases. However, you don’t have to monitor the market around the clock. At Trejdoo, you can set a currency exchange order at your own price. You set the rate that interests you, and the system will automatically execute the exchange once the market reaches that level.
- For freelancers and e-commerce (EUR): The stabilization of EUR/PLN provides a good window to convert your revenue if you prioritize a predictable financial outcome.
- Tool of the Day: Days with lower liquidity can be deceptive – the market may remain stagnant only to make a sudden jump. Instead of taking risks, use a pending order. You decide the rate at which you want to buy or sell currency, not the market.
💡 Trejdoo Tip: You don’t have to spend your day glued to the monitor. Check the live rates in our currency calculator and place an order at your own rate. It’s the easiest way to automate your exchange stress-free.
Summary
Monday, marked by “Presidents’ Day” in the US and GDP data from Japan, brings a moment of respite to the currency markets. The Zloty maintains a strong position, and major currency pairs are consolidating in anticipation of the return of full liquidity on Tuesday. This is a good time for calm transaction planning and setting pending orders.
*This material, prepared by Igoria Trade S.A., is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or investment advice. The data comes from sources deemed reliable; however, Igoria Trade S.A. does not guarantee its full accuracy. Interpretations of charts and comments reflect the subjective assessment of the authors. Users should conduct their own analysis before making any investment decisions. Igoria Trade S.A. bears no responsibility for the consequences of actions based on the information contained herein. Use or publication of all or part of this material without the written consent of Igoria Trade S.A. is prohibited.*
Japan Narrowly Escapes Recession While America Celebrates
Exchange rates Feb 16, 2026
Monday’s market opening is marked by a wait-and-see atmosphere and limited liquidity. While the US observes Washington’s Birthday and China continues its New Year celebrations, key market drivers came from Tokyo, where the economy managed to avoid a technical recession, despite data coming in weaker than market expectations.
Last 24h Macro: Japan and ECB in Focus
The key overnight event was the release of preliminary Japan Q4 GDP data. The Japanese economy grew by 0.1% q/q, symbolically snapping the contraction streak from the previous period. While this result fell well short of the forecasted 0.4% growth, investors breathed a sigh of relief at the end of the technical recession. Notable, however, is the high GDP deflator at 3.4% y/y, suggesting that price pressure in Japan persists, providing the Bank of Japan with arguments for further monetary policy normalization.
In Europe, echoes of Sunday’s speech by the ECB President continue to resonate. Speaking yesterday, Christine Lagarde maintained a rhetoric that markets are interpreting as a “cautiously wait-and-see” approach. The absence of abrupt declarations from Frankfurt supports the stability of the euro, which is holding onto the gains made last week. Investors are hoping that today’s Eurogroup meeting will shed more light on the Eurozone’s fiscal plans in the face of slowing economic growth.
Global Markets: The Calm Before the Storm?
Today’s session is a classic example of trading with reduced market participation. The absence of investors from the US (Presidents’ Day) and Canada (Family Day) means trading volumes on major currency pairs will drop sharply after 14:00 CET. Under these conditions, markets often enter a phase of sideways drift; however, thin liquidity carries risks—even smaller orders can trigger disproportionately large, temporary price movements.
In the commodities market, we are observing consolidation. Gold is holding firmly above the psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce, testing the $5,007 level. Brent crude, priced at $67.65, remains in a stable trend, balancing between concerns over demand in China and geopolitical risks. The DAX index (DE30) is oscillating around 25,061 points, searching for direction in the absence of cues from Wall Street.
Currencies: Zloty Stable, Dollar on the Defensive
The situation on the currency market this morning is as follows:
EUR/USD: The major pair is clinging to the 1.1863 level. The H1 chart shows a distinct deceleration of bullish momentum within the Ichimoku Cloud zone. With US capital absent, a break of the 1.1900 resistance seems unlikely today, unless European data (industrial production) surprises to the upside.
Outlook for the Day
Despite the holiday in North America, the calendar is not entirely empty. At 11:00 AM CET, we will see the release of Eurozone industrial production data for December (forecast: -1.5% m/m), which will serve as a test for the health of the European industrial sector.
Things could get interesting in the afternoon for Canadian Dollar (CAD) pairs. Despite the holiday in Canada, the calendar schedules the CPI release for 14:30 CET. If the data is published as planned, the low liquidity environment could cause USD/CAD (and indirectly CAD/PLN) to experience elevated volatility.
How to take advantage of the current market situation?
A quiet Monday is the perfect moment for “back-to-basics” work in corporate finance. When the market is calm, it is easier to perform cool-headed calculations and implement transaction automation.
Summary
Monday, marked by “Presidents’ Day” in the US and GDP data from Japan, brings a moment of respite to the currency markets. The Zloty maintains a strong position, and major currency pairs are consolidating in anticipation of the return of full liquidity on Tuesday. This is a good time for calm transaction planning and setting pending orders.
*This material, prepared by Igoria Trade S.A., is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or investment advice. The data comes from sources deemed reliable; however, Igoria Trade S.A. does not guarantee its full accuracy. Interpretations of charts and comments reflect the subjective assessment of the authors. Users should conduct their own analysis before making any investment decisions. Igoria Trade S.A. bears no responsibility for the consequences of actions based on the information contained herein. Use or publication of all or part of this material without the written consent of Igoria Trade S.A. is prohibited.*Share this